But there are some prospects in the first round of this year’s draft who are, well, extremely unlikely for what the Packers are right now as a football team. Not that they are bad prospects, and this is not the point of this exercise, but because of where they play, it’s hard to imagine them making sense for Green Bay.
Ultimately, these three players would be real shockers for the Packers in the first round.
RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
Do you think it’s been a long time since the Packers took a wide receiver in the first round for the last time? Well, now take a look at the last time they did it for a running back. It was in 1990, when Tom Braatz was still the top executive before the Ron Wolf era. The Packers had two consecutive first-round picks and used the second one to select Darrell Thompson.
It was a very different game back then. Since Brian Gutekunst took over, the highest pick he spent on a running back was the 62nd to select AJ Dillon in 2020.
ESPN’s predictive model had Hampton as one of the five likeliest picks for the Packers at 23, but it probably says more about the model than about what Green Bay intends to do in the first round.
Last year, the Packers signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year deal and he immediately made the Pro Bowl. The depth also has impactful backups in Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks. And don’t forget that they used a third-round pick last year to draft MarShawn Lloyd, who barely played as a rookie because of injuries.
If Gutekunst thinks the running back class is so good to pass up, it’s feasible to expect a Day 3 selection. In the first round, though, it’s truly hard to imagine.
LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
Once again, this is not about the player. Even though Campbell is not a special prospect like Roquan Smith or Micah Parsons, he is an excellent prospect and has a real shot at being a good NFL player.
However, there are multiple reasons for the Packers not to take an off-ball linebacker this high (once more).
First, linebackers are extremely hard to evaluate. Outside of those two examples, and Parsons moved to edge, the track record of first-round off-ball linebackers is abysmal. Including Quay Walker, whom the Packers selected with the 22nd overall pick in 2022 and who hasn’t been nearly as valuable as his draft slot.
Moreover, the reward doesn’t justify the risk. Compared to other positions, the surplus value generated by a good rookie linebacker isn’t that high, and even the return on the field is somewhat limited unless it’s a truly elite player.
Finally, the Packers are at a good spot at the position after finding Edgerrin Cooper in the second round last year. Walker is a decent starter, and Gutekunst has mentioned the desire to keep him long term. The team extended Isaiah McDuffie and re-signed Kristian Welch, while waiting to see if third-round pick Ty’Ron Hopper will develop.
No need, limited surplus value, a lot of risk. It’s the imperfect storm.
S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
If this was last year or the year before, everyone would be pounding the table for the Packers to select Emmanwori. He is versatile, good in coverage, and a 10.0 Relative Athletic Score. It’s a very Packers-y prospect for all intents and purposes.
However, need is always a factor. Even though Gutekunst said he tries to avoid picks for needs and is always looking for the best available player, the projected role of a pick throughout his rookie contract does matter. The Packers rebuilt their safety room last offseason by signing Xavier McKinney in free agency and drafting Javon Bullard, Evan Williams, and Kitan Oladapo.
Unless Emmanwori is by far the best player on the board and the Packers can’t find a trade down, taking a first-round safety would probably be a misuse of resources.
