The NHL released their new salary cap projections for the next three seasons, and the news is big. Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the 2025-26 salary cap is expected to go to $95.5 million, followed by a massive leap in 2026-27 to $104 million and in 2027-28: $113.5 million. This will affect every NHL franchise, but for the Toronto Maple Leafs, some big decisions will come into clearer focus.
How This Season Is Impacted
Regarding what the Maple Leafs might add to help this season’s run, these new cap projections won’t impact how much the Leafs can take on this season. That said, it could impact the type of player they look for in trade or who they sell (or don’t sell) at the deadline.
For example, GM Brad Treliving might have previously been open to adding only a rental, keeping his plate clean for this summer. That would have limited the field to pending UFAs like Brock Nelson, Luke Kunin, or anyone else they see as a potential fit whose contract ends this season. Now, with the cushion of a jumping cap, the Leafs might feel less worried about taking on a player with the term.
At the same time, if Toronto had looked at the Mikko Rantanen trade and started getting nervous that they’d need to make a similar decision with Mitch Marner, some of that pressure might have been alleviated this morning. The new projections will make it easier to swallow what might be as high as a $14 million per season extension for Marner. If Marner is comfortable with just under the Auston Matthews deal, this extension deal could get done sooner rather than later.
This Summer’s Plans
That Marner decision bleeds over into the offseason, where the organization must make its first huge decisions. If not already inked, at the top of the list is the Marner deal. The second is an extension for John Tavares.
Let’s say the Marner deal comes in at around $13 million. The next play is trying to work out a team-friendly deal with John Tavares. The term “team-friendly” might look a little different today than it did yesterday. With a jumping cap, maybe Tavares’ position hasn’t changed. But, if teams are willing to throw money at a veteran leader with 42 points in 44 games, the Leafs might have to be in the ballpark of what other teams will offer.
A club that wants to get better right away but doesn’t need a long-term fix could throw $6 or $7 million at Tavares. That’s going to feel high for Maple Leafs fans. It will lead to a potentially tricky decision if he returns to Toronto and says he wants at least $5 million and/or multiple years. Maybe they blink, maybe they don’t.
What About Matthew Knies?
Toronto also had a big decision to make with Matthew Knies. Is he the kind of player who is worth investing long-term in now, projecting that he’ll be a steal when the cap jumps to $113 million? Or do you push that decision down the road, bridge him, and risk that he scores 30-40 goals per season over the next two seasons? He’s on pace for 31 goals this year. He doesn’t have the leverage to force Toronto’s hand, but this jump in salary cap poses a problem down the road if Toronto doesn’t lock him in now and he explodes offensively.
It’s a risk either way, but the pain isn’t as harsh if you pay him now and invest long-term, but it doesn’t pan out. The Leafs can swallow a less-productive Knies at $7 million on a long-term deal, and then they can wait and see him turn into a $12 million per season player. If Toronto locks him in, and he becomes a regular 35-goal guy, he’s a steal at 5-6% of the team cap in a couple of seasons.
Free Agency Plans Moving Forward
In a few seasons, the door opens wide for a team willing to spend to the cap ceiling, which the Maple Leafs are. This summer, the team will have $26.75 million to spend. Next summer, that number jumps to over $46.4 million. In 2027-28, it’s $61.3 million. For Toronto, this is good news and means all the big deals they signed with their core guys start helping them out while other teams lock in their top players at higher rates.
Beyond the space created to chase a player like Mikko Rantanen this offseason or someone like Kyle Connor in 2026, for some Canadian teams, the exchange rate will make these leaps harder to swallow. For the Leafs, it’s another day in the park. That will widen their advantage over clubs like the Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets.
