Kentucky vs. Alabama preview and prediction: A Tuscaloosa showdown looms
The Crimson Tide took the first meeting in Rupp Arena 102-97. What do the Cats need to do to get revenge down in Tuscaloosa?
By
Drew Holbrook
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Jan 18, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) shoots the ball during the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Jan 18, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) shoots the ball during the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
The No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (18-8, 7-6 SEC) roll into Tuscaloosa on February 22, 2025, to tangle with the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (21-5, 10-3 SEC), and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Kentucky’s riding a wave after crushing Vanderbilt 82-61, but Alabama’s Coleman Coliseum—a cauldron of noise and crimson pride—awaits.
The Tide, still smarting from a 110-98 stumble at Missouri, aim to reassert their dominance with the nation’s top-scoring offense. This SEC clash could shake up conference standings and NCAA Tournament seeding.
NO. 4 ALABAMA TAKES DOWN NO. 8 KENTUCKY AT RUPP‼️
It’s the Tide’s first road win vs a top-10 Wildcats team since 2002 😤 pic.twitter.com/lULiC7vasv
— ESPN (@espn) January 18, 2025
One twist: Kentucky might miss Kerr Kriisa, Lamont Butler, and Jaxson Robinson, whose absences could leave the Wildcats scrambling against a deep Bama backcourt. Can Kentucky defy the odds on the road? Let’s dive in before the Tuscaloosa showdown.
Key Matchup: Kentucky’s Frontcourt vs. Alabama’s Paint Prowlers
This game could very well hinge on the battle down low. Kentucky’s Amari Williams (10.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and a healthy Andrew Carr (9.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG) anchor a rugged frontcourt, facing off against Alabama’s Grant Nelson (12.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Clifford Omoruyi (7.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG).
Williams, a rebounding machine, and Carr, a savvy scorer, must neutralize Nelson’s versatility—he dropped 25 points in the last meeting in Lexington—and Omoruyi’s rim protection is something to watch. Alabama’s 60.5% two-point shooting (No. 2 nationally) thrives in the paint, but Kentucky’s 4.3 blocks per game could clog the lane. Whoever owns the glass and the interior scoring wins this battle of SEC heavyweights.
Stats and Players to Watch
Alabama Crimson Tide
Offensive Firepower: Alabama averages 90.6 PPG (No. 1), fueled by 60.5% inside shooting and 10.2 threes per game. They’re relentless, piling up 47.3 second-half points (No. 1).
Mark Sears (Guard): The Tide’s maestro, averaging 18.5 PPG and 4.8 APG. His 24-point, 9-assist torching of Kentucky last time haunts Wildcat dreams.
Grant Nelson (Forward): A double-double threat at 12.5 PPG and 8.1 RPG, Nelson’s inside-out game (25 points last matchup) makes him a matchup nightmare.
Kentucky Wildcats
Balanced Attack: Kentucky’s 85.8 PPG (No. 3) comes with efficiency—56.7% effective FG% (No. 12) and 38.0% from deep (No. 19). They shine late, scoring 45.6 second-half points (No. 2). So, it is strength vs. strength in the second-half.
Otega Oweh (Guard): Leading scorer at 16.2 PPG, Oweh’s slashing (21 points last game vs. Alabama) could exploit Alabama’s 18.9 fouls per game.
Amari Williams (Center): A force at 10.8 PPG and 8.7 RPG, Williams’ 1.4 blocks per game will test Alabama’s paint dominance.
Note: Lamont Butler (12.5 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jaxson Robinson (13.3 PPG) might not play as of this writing. If sidelined, Kentucky leans harder on Koby Brea (10.6 PPG), Travis Perry, and Collin Chandler to fill the void.
Ways Kentucky Can Attack Alabama
Dominate the Boards: Alabama’s 34.4% offensive rebound rate (No. 25) thrives on second chances—they grabbed 15 last meeting. Kentucky’s 74.5% defensive rebound rate (No. 78) must box out Nelson and Omoruyi to stifle extra possessions. Rebounding will be crucial!
Force Fouls: Alabama’s foul-prone (18.9 per game, 329th) defense is a crack to pry open. Oweh’s drives and Williams’ post presence could draw contact—Kentucky must shoot well from the free throw line.
Stifle Transition: Alabama’s 16 fast-break points last game stung. Kentucky’s 6.2 steals per game and crisp 1.634 assist-to-turnover ratio (No. 8) can slow the Tide’s breakneck pace if they can avoid turnovers.
Lean on the Arc: Alabama’s defense allows 30.2% from three (No. 28), while Kentucky hits 38.0% (No. 19). If Brea and company heat up, they could stretch the Tide thin.
Prediction:
Kentucky 97, Alabama 91
Alabama’s home advantage and offensive juggernaut status give them a strong starting point, but the Cats find a way on the road. Their 44.0 rebounds per game (No. 1) and Sears’ wizardry should outlast Kentucky’s grit though. Without Butler and Robinson, the backcourt thins against Alabama’s guard depth. Expect a high-octane shootout either way, with the Cats pulling away late in a raucous Coleman Coliseum.
Your Turn: Can Kentucky shock the Tide in Tuscaloosa? Share your score prediction in the comments and catch the action on ESPN!
