City drawing at Spurs on Tuesday would leave Pep Guardiola’s side level with Arsenal heading into the final day on Sunday
Arsenal have taken the Premier League title race to the final day after beating Manchester United, but whether they will remain top going into Sunday depends on Manchester City’s result against Tottenham on Tuesday.
Spurs are unbeaten against City in the league at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where they have played since 2019, although Pep Guardiola’s side did finally end their jinx at the ground in the FA Cup back in January.
City will need to beat Spurs to ensure they overtake Arsenal at the top of the table and remain favourites for a record fourth consecutive title.
It therefore leaves Arsenal needing a favour from their north London rivals, a factor that has some Spurs fans willing on City to beat their own team despite their own Champions League aspirations. “I’m City till July!” some are even chanting.
Arsenal supporters, meanwhile, will find themselves cheering for Spurs on Tuesday, a bizarre outcome echoed by their in-form forward Kai Havertz.
“We know we need [a Spurs win], and they are a really tough team to play against as we saw a few weeks ago, but hopefully they do it,” said Havertz.
“I’m going to be the biggest fan of Tottenham ever. We all are going to be. Let’s hope for the best.”
How goal difference could decide Premier League title
The last and only time that goal difference has decided the title in the Premier League era was in 2011-12, as that “Aguerooo” moment handed City their first top-flight title since 1968 at Manchester United’s expense.
Both sides finished on 89 points, but City’s goal difference of +64 was eight goals better than United’s.
This time around, there are two scenarios where Arsenal and City could both end up on 89 points, depending on Tuesday’s result.
A draw between Spurs and City on Tuesday would throw up the first and clearest scenario of goal difference coming into play on Sunday.
It would leave Arsenal and City tied on 86 points heading into the final day, with Arsenal boasting a superior goal difference by just three goals: +61 to +58.
This could result in two gung-ho matches where Arsenal chase a big victory at home to Everton, ensuring they keep pace with City, who will hope to thrash West Ham at the Etihad.
The five goal difference scenarios in brief
Both on 89 points
- City draw with Spurs, City beat West Ham, Arsenal beat Everton
- City beat Spurs, City draw with West Ham, Arsenal beat Everton
Both on 87 points
- City draw with Spurs, City draw with West Ham, Arsenal draw with Everton
Both on 86 points
- City draw with Spurs, City lose to West Ham, Arsenal lose to Everton
- City lose to Spurs, City draw with West Ham, Arsenal lose to Everton
The second scenario where goal difference could become a factor is if City beat Spurs to go top but then draw to West Ham on the final day. That would take City to 89 points again, meaning Arsenal would have to beat Everton and ensure their goal difference remains superior.
