Taking a very, very short-term view, Arsenal aren’t on a great run of form.
Three games without a win in three different competitions have put the brakes on their season, but not so long ago, things felt rather different.
A 3-1 win over Brentford on New Year’s Day extended an unbeaten run that stretched back to early November.
Since captain Martin Ødegaard returned to the starting lineup at Chelsea, Mikel Arteta’s side had gone 12 games without a defeat. They had worked their way back into the title race as the only realistic challengers to runaway leaders Liverpool, hoping to take advantage of Manchester City’s shocking collapse in the league, and they were still battling on four fronts.
They even seemed to be successfully navigating the loss of Bukayo Saka to a serious hamstring injury, having put together three consecutive Premier League wins without arguably their best player.
A couple of weeks on, however, things look less positive. They were way off their best in drawing 1-1 at Brighton, before their most disappointing result of the season when they went 2-0 down at home in the League Cup semi-final first leg against Newcastle. That was followed up this weekend with a penalty-shootout defeat to 10-man Manchester United in the FA Cup that left their hopes of landing a first trophy since 2020 this season hanging by a thread.
Across north London, Spurs hope to have turned a corner after a woeful recent run of form. A week ago, Ange Postecoglou’s side had won only two of their last 11 games, and those were away to Premier League strugglers Southampton and at home to Man Utd in the League Cup, when they very nearly threw away a 3-0 lead.
A 1-0 win over Liverpool in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final lifted the mood, though. Requiring extra-time to beat National League side Tamworth at the weekend was far from ideal, and Spurs diced with death against fifth-tier opposition, but ultimately, they won, some of their best players got a rest, and their hopes of ending their trophy drought remain very much alive.
Wednesday’s north London derby therefore comes at an odd time. Arsenal are in danger of their season unravelling, while Spurs are threatening to get theirs back on track.
Going on very, very, very recent form, one might be forgiven for thinking Tottenham could be in with a chance of getting a result.
But while Spurs might be buoyed by an uncharacteristic run of 262 minutes without conceding a goal – their second best such run this season (they went 359 minutes without conceding in September/October) – the fact remains that these two teams are worlds apart in terms of quality.
Arsenal are title challengers, and should be contenders in the Champions League; Tottenham are grossly inconsistent, in the bottom half of the table, and may not even finish in the top eight of the league phase of the Europa League.
In Arsenal’s recent run of three games without a win, they have scored only two goals, but have created enough chances to win all three. Their chances in those games have been worth 7.35 xG (0.88 vs Brighton, 3.22 vs Newcastle, 3.25 vs Man Utd), but they were let down by some very poor finishing and thwarted by some outstanding goalkeeping, most notably when Ødegaard saw his penalty saved by United keeper Altay Bayindir.
