Both of these managers have done very good jobs, both of these clubs have made sizeable strides. One of them is nonetheless likely about to get criticised and told they need to do more in the next week or risk missing out on their objectives. And it almost doesn’t matter which coach it’s aimed at.
Such is the relentless, never-stand-still nature of the Premier League and the focus point of most outsider commentators, who see transfer necessities in draws and trophy pushes in victory, even two weeks into the season.
Defeat? That can mean anything, from a side going stale to a manager falling short. But both of these clubs will sidestep those hot takes, of course. Regardless of a single result in isolation, both will feel they are prepared and on course for their respective seasonal objectives – it’s just that Arsenal have far less margin for error in their own.
And that makes this trip to Villa Park a particularly noteworthy one, up against their former boss Unai Emery, their former goalkeeper Emi Martinez and, oddly, one of their own biggest strengths from last term.
The Gunners only just fell short in the title fight last year. Two points isn’t much, yet it’s also a world of improvement to find when there’s so little scope for shortfall. To reverse the view of needing a points haul, to become champions teams can effectively only not win ten league games or so – making a trip to a rival top-four side from last term one of the critical tests to come through.
Arsenal’s away form last year was near-exemplary: 13 wins from 19, only three defeats. Manchester City won one more match and drew one fewer – that was basically the difference in the title.
But it’s Arsenal who had the better defensive record on the road and, at this stage of the campaign, that might be a critical edge.
With most sides not yet at full speed in terms of playing style or fitness across the whole squad – particularly after a summer of Euros and Copas – it will be resilience, cohesion and individuality which might make more of a difference than usual.
Mikel Arteta might well not make any changes to his back line just yet, but where his team have strengthened to this point is in defence. He can bring in Riccardo Calafiori if he so chooses, perhaps to lock down at left-back, or the Arsenal boss can utilise in-game switches to seal up the defensive third of the pitch.
Aston Villa aren’t yet firing on all cylinders themselves yet had enough in the tank – options off the bench and chances being created – to beat West Ham themselves last week.
In their first home match of the season, they will be looking to show similar form at Villa Park to last year: In their first 13 they won 10, before fading badly later on, winning only two of the last six.
If the ambition is to secure fourth once more – yes, fifth could be enough to get a Champions League spot but nobody wants to rely on mere possibilities when definites are in their own hands – then picking up results at home is a must, even against the best. Arguably that should be especially against the best, as it reels them in, makes others more wary when they come to visit and raises confidence even further in the squad.
Yet it remains true that with Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea all in varying states of flux, fourth is Villa’s to hold for now, given they have the more settled side, the strong summer investment and a manager who has achieved it before. Tottenham are the joker in the pack for this discussion but their own consistency remains in question. And against all that, Villa have more scope to fall short more often.
They took 68 points for fourth last year: if Arsenal can only drop points in ten games to go for the title, Villa know they can achieve similar results to 23/24 by merely winning around half their games – 20 wins from 38. Lose here and it isn’t so damaging, whereas for Arsenal, even a draw goes down as ten per cent of their realistic non-win allowance, just two weeks into the season.
It’s tough to quantify the pressure in that regard that teams and managers are under now to pick up results relentlessly, right from the very first kick-off. But that’s what Arteta has been reinforcing in his squad, over and over for years now. Losing here, losing already, doesn’t immediately mean the Gunners will fall short – but neither can they be under any illusions about exactly how significant such a result will be across the year.
